Updated September 4 (FINAL REVISION)
Tony Romo Dallas Cowboys : I’m going to get a lot of hate or criticism for this one but I really don’t know about Romo anymore. I think this might be his last hoorah with the Cowboys and he won’t cut it for some fantasy owners with the pressure he will have entering this season. There will be too many expectations on him to take the Cowboys to the promise land and that will lead to a lot more mistakes leading to less fantasy points.
Eli Manning New York Giants : After two back to back seasons with 4,000 plus passing yards I believe his best seasons are now behind him. I do not see him accomplishing that feat once again for a 3rd straight season, add to that some key offensive subtractions and Manning could really struggle. The Eagles defense, Cowboys defense, and even the Redskins defense can cause a lot of problems for him keep in mind that’s a total of six games.
Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s really difficult for me to put this guy in the bust category after he lead his team to the Super Bowl. Did he really lead them or was it the Steelers defense? Steelers in the red zone tend to pound the ball on the ground rather than go through the air. Big Ben’s resume also needs to be considered as he takes vicious hits and you might have a quarterback only half a season which is never good.
Mark Sanchez New York Jets : They added Plaxico and kept Holmes, but tell me what’s so sexy about drafting Sanchez? What has he done to be fantasy relevant? Matter of fact, I will throw you a stat that might surprise you. Chad Henne actually had better numbers last year than Sanchez in passing percentage, more passing yards and more yards per attempt. So maybe just maybe Henne might suit you better.
Peyton Hillis Cleveland Browns : Did the Browns run him to the ground? Or did he just run out of fuel? Maybe he became a victim of defenses just stacking the box and stopping the running game. Either way he only ran for 272 yards and zero touchdowns in the last 5 games of the 2010 season. All that plus him being the cover boy for Madden 2012 and it’s easy to see why I say stay away.
Arian Foster Houston Texans : Well what can I say? Everyone will tell me I’m crazy for labeling this guy a bust after basically ending last season as the #1 back. So here I go, I don’t trust him (one year wonder entering 3rd season) I don’t feel comfortable knowing he only ran over 1,000 yards once in college and he barely did. Finally, I don’t feel he should be drafted ahead of these three proven backs MJD, Chris Johnson, and Ray Rice. Pick your poison but with me it wouldn’t be Foster.
Frank Gore San Francisco 49ers: So I hear Jim Harbaugh will get him more involved with the offense? Is that really necessary given he hasn’t played a full NFL season since 2006? He also ran for his lowest total last year since his rookie season, so to be fairly honest with you Frank Gore to me is in limbo. He will either prove me extremely wrong or extremely right. Just hope Harbaugh doesn’t try and run him to the ground cause this car might run out of fuel quickly.
Jonathan Stewart Carolina Panthers: Ok with the re-signing of DeAngelo Williams I consider him at best a flex play. With John Fox no longer in Carolina I question if they will even use the 2 back offense like they have in years prior. If they do, he becomes somewhat valuable but definitely not enough for me to spend a 6th or 7th rounder on I will be looking elsewhere. I say C.J. Spiller maybe?
Darren McFadden Oakland Raiders: I wonder if McFadden can really stay healthy? My answer to that question is NO so that’s why he makes my list. Before I get the massive amount of criticism or hate mail, just take a look back at what he did the first two seasons with Oakland (NOTHING). I give him one more year before crowning him KING of LA.
LeGarrette Blount Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I’m not sold on Blount just yet. I know he rushed for 1,000 yards and yes I know he did it with only 200 carries. But I ask? Can he repeat what he did with just 13 NFL games under his belt and is he worth taking as your second back in the 4th or 5th round. I see four or five guys I rather take in those rounds where Blount is going in the majority of standard 12 team drafts. Bottom line I won’t call him a bust because this is his second year but I won’t be drafting him as high as some sites suggest.
Reggie Wayne Indianapolis Colts: With the injury to Peyton Manning I expect Reggie Wayne’s production to take a dip. The last time Manning missed camp Wayne had his lowest receptions since 2006. Granted, soon as Manning gets back and in rhythm with Wayne, he can easily climb back to fantasy relevance and fast. For now, I wouldn’t draft Wayne high unless you plan to sit on him, but I’ll admit I can’t call him a complete bust just yet. Don’t kill me for this one.
Michael Crabtree San Francisco 49ers: Crabtree was so great coming out of college but now has become a victim of injuries for the past 3 years. This will mark the 3rd straight year he will miss preseason time and a share of season games. I would stay away from him until I see him on the field for long periods of time. Josh Morgan is my sleeper cause of this main reason.
Santonio Holmes New York Jets : I see the Jets doing what they do best, playing defense and running the ball. Airing it out is not in their Sunday game plan, not saying Holmes won’t get his fair share of balls thrown his way but I definitely would not spend a 5th or 6th round pick on him. I will be looking elsewhere such as Ochocinco or Boldin to fill my void.
Hakeem Nicks New York Giants : So if I put Eli Manning as a possible bust why wouldn’t I put his receiver? The talent is there so I can’t argue that. What I will argue is that he can never stay on the field and always manages to be absent 3-4 games due to injuries. The high value some owners will be counting on will eventually be compromised when the injuries roll around. He is the true definition of high risk higher reward.
Brandon Lloyd Denver Broncos: John Fox is way less of a gambling man than Josh McDaniel’s. Air on the side of precaution when drafting Lloyd high I don’t see him repeating his numbers from last year at all. Yes Kyle Orton is still going to be there and they will continue to make one hell of a combo, but I also see the defenses clapping down on him more this year after looking at tape.
Kenny Britt: Tennessee Titans : MAN! I used to LOVE this guy before this season now I say “STAY AWAY”. No Vince Young, new coach, new system, and off the field issues makes me want to run far with no turning back. Britt has plenty of talent but a lot of question marks surround him this year starting with his 3 open pending court cases.
Marcedes Lewis Jacksonville Jaguars: I’m not a fan of what’s been going on in Jacksonville as far as the QB situation. Lewis also has NOT been a consistent fantasy contributor the past few years. The mix of those two issues gives me enough reason for concern. I say draft Lewis as a backup not your primary Tight End.
Jermichael Finley Green Bay Packers: After a major knee injury I wouldn’t reward Finley with a high pick. I would wait and see if he falls in your lap around the 5th or 6th round. He might be productive but won’t be in the cream of the crop like (Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Brandon Pettigrew) I give him another year until we see the Jermichael Finley we fell in love with. (Just look at Owen Daniels last year).
Tony Gonzalez Atlanta Falcons : This one is fairly simple to me! Age has caught up with Tony “Ironman” Gonzalez. Entering this season he will be 35 and that’s flirting with disaster. Yes he has been durable, and yes he has been relevant but at 34 he had his worst totals season since 2003. To make it more specific he had his lowest receiving yardage since 1998 so be very careful.
Chris CooleyWashington Redskins : His value takes a huge hit with the departure of Donovan McNabb. Cooley has been a solid tight end for numerous years, but this is the year I see him being Fantasy irrelevant. Fred Davis is still hanging around which can also lead to Cooley seeing less snaps and less productivity.